How cold is too cold? When do they start to migrate?
Two questions here ...
1) colder than you think - we had a female who overwintered here for close to 15 years, sat on the metal signs and everything winter and summer. There are birds now in the US who used to migrate, who aren't now. The former resident pair in Columbus, Ohio are a good example of that. I should note, that most peregrine subspecies, don't migrate long distances like ours, most move around in a local area, 100-200kms during the "off-season", still technically a migration, but not as we know it.
2) migration not based on temperature - based on when everyone (i.e. food) is moving it appears. Warmer falls can mean more time up here, lousy spring weather can mean later returns. Departure dates vary right into December from Winnipeg, returns are usually mid-Feb (earliest) to end of March, occasionally a resident bird will retun later than that, usually no later than mid-April.