I just wanted to throw something in also. There are storms in the USA right now so I think it depends on , where they migrated to, and the route they are taking home, which is usually the same every year, according to our transmitter falcons.
I do not know these 2 well enough to make a comment on who it is. I jsut know the biologists kept saying last year it was not our male and i knew it was and then we got band numbers and it was. So Tracy knows the habits of these 2 better than anyone.
Stay positive.
nest on the west(being quiet here)